The NVD vulnerability backlog has reached 12603 vulnerabilities pending analysis. With the absence of a product, we and other core elements, the application security, ASTM, and other vendors are struggling to catch up. Phoenix Security has already started pre-processing a number of vulnerabilities and ingesting enrichment CISA and other raw sources like CVE.org. Managing software vulnerabilities is a critical aspect of cybersecurity. Organisations rely on comprehensive databases and enrichment programs to stay ahead of potential threats. The National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are two key players in this field. Recently, CISA launched the Vulnrichment program to address the growing backlog of vulnerabilities, which could reshape how we manage and mitigate cyber threats.
This article provides an in-depth look at what the NVD is, the role of CISA, the vulnerability backlog and how the Vulnrichment program aims to tackle the vulnerability backlog burndown current challenges in vulnerability management.
What is the National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and vulnerability backlog?
The National Vulnerability Database (NVD) is the U.S. government’s repository of standards-based vulnerability management data. Managed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the NVD includes databases of security checklists, security-related software flaws, misconfigurations, product names, and impact metrics. It provides valuable information that organizations use to ensure their systems and networks are secure.
Key Features of the NVD:
- Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE): A list of publicly disclosed information security vulnerabilities and exposures.
- Common Platform Enumeration (CPE): A standardized method of describing and identifying classes of applications, operating systems, and hardware devices.
- Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS): A free and open industry standard for assessing the severity of computer system security vulnerabilities.
- Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE): A list of software weaknesses.
The NVD plays a crucial role in being the central point of vulnerability information. However, recent challenges have led to a significant backlog in vulnerability analysis and enrichment.
What is CISA?
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is a federal agency under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). It is responsible for enhancing the security, resilience, and reliability of the nation’s cybersecurity and communications infrastructure.
CISA’s Key Responsibilities:
- Cybersecurity: Protecting federal networks and collaborating with private sector partners to defend critical infrastructure.
- Infrastructure Security: Ensuring the security of the physical infrastructure and assets that are essential to the nation’s security, economy, and public health.
- Emergency Communications: Improving emergency communications capabilities across the nation.
CISA is often the first to issue public warnings about vulnerabilities that are being actively exploited in the wild. This proactive approach helps organizations take immediate action to protect their systems.
Reasons for the NVD Vulnerability Backlog
Several factors have contributed to the current backlog in the NVD:
Resource Constraints
One of the primary reasons for the backlog is the limited resources and budget constraints faced by NIST. With insufficient funding and staffing, the agency struggled to keep up with the volume of new vulnerabilities being reported. This has led to delays in analyzing and enriching CVE records, resulting in a significant accumulation of unprocessed data.
Speculation on New CPE Initiative
The introduction of a new CPE initiative has also been speculated to contribute to the backlog. Implementing a new system for describing and identifying software and hardware products requires time and effort. While ultimately beneficial for standardization and accuracy, this change has temporarily slowed down the enrichment process.
Change in CVE Format
Another factor is the adoption of the new CVE format (version 5.1). While the updated format aims to provide more detailed and structured information, the transition has required adjustments in processes and tools used for vulnerability analysis. This transition period has contributed to delays in processing and enriching CVE records.
The Current State of the Vulnerability Backlog
As of May 23, 2024, the NVD faces a significant backlog in vulnerability analysis. According to the Automation Working Group’s report on May 22, CISA is currently analyzing and enriching approximately 200 vulnerabilities per day. Here are some critical statistics:
- Daily Vulnerability Discovery: Between 84-98 new vulnerabilities are discovered daily.
- Vulnerabilities Since February 15: Over 10,118 new vulnerabilities have been discovered since February 15, with the current total standing at 12,603.
- Analysis Capacity: CISA’s new team can analyze and enrich 4,364 vulnerabilities per month.
- New Vulnerabilities: A conservative estimate of 2,981 new vulnerabilities are discovered each month.
For additional statistics on vulnerability and exploitability, refer to:
- Exploit in the wild: https://phoenix.security/what-is-exploitability/
- OWASP/Appsec Vulnerability: https://phoenix.security/what-is-owasp-main/
- CWE/Appsec Vulnerabilities: https://phoenix.security/what-is-cwe-main/
Given these numbers, it will take the new team approximately 10-11 months to clear the current backlog, assuming there are no disruptions. This sets the first target date for a clear backlog around March 2025.
For a wider analysis of the other implications of NVD backlog, refer to nvd-exploited vulnerabilities article and vulncheck report
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The Vulnrichment Program: Addressing the NVD Vulnerability Backlog
In response to NIST scaling down its involvement with the NVD due to resource constraints, CISA launched the Vulnrichment program. The primary goal of this initiative is to enrich CVE records with additional data, making it easier for organizations to manage vulnerabilities effectively.
- Data Enrichment: Adding CPE, CVSS, CWE, and Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) information to CVE records to address the NVD Vulnerability Backlog
As part of the efforts to address the significant backlog in the National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and manage new vulnerabilities, CISA has launched the Burndown Initiative. This initiative aims to reduce the backlog while concurrently handling new vulnerabilities systematically. This section examines the feasibility of this initiative, the projected timeline for clearing the backlog, and the challenges that may arise.
NVD Backlog Burndown Initiative Overview
The NVD Vulnerability Burndown Initiative is a structured plan to analyze and enrich both the existing the NVD Vulnerability Backlog and the newly discovered ones. The goal is to ensure that all vulnerabilities are processed in a timely manner, thus enhancing the overall cybersecurity posture.
- Backlog: The number of vulnerabilities carried over from the previous month.
- New: The number of new vulnerabilities discovered each month.
- Analyzed: The number of vulnerabilities that the CISA team can analyze and enrich each month.
- Remaining: The backlog remains at the end of each month.
Feasibility and Timeline
Analysis Capacity
The CISA team’s analysis and enrichment capacity is projected at 4,364 vulnerabilities per month. Considering the conservative estimate of 2,981 new vulnerabilities discovered each month, the team will need to meet or exceed this capacity to stay on track consistently.
Projected Timeline
Based on the current backlog of 12,603 vulnerabilities as of May 23, 2024, and the ongoing addition of new vulnerabilities:
- Backlog Reduction: The initiative aims to reduce the backlog to zero by March 2025.
- Sustainability: The team must analyze and enrich an average of 4,364 vulnerabilities per month while managing the influx of new vulnerabilities.
Challenges and Considerations
Several challenges may impact the success of the Burndown Initiative:
- Resource Allocation: Sustained high performance requires consistent resource allocation, including staffing and funding. Any disruption could extend the timeline.
- Process Optimization: Continuous improvement in the analysis and enrichment processes is critical. Automation and improved tools could enhance efficiency.
- New Vulnerability Trends: The actual number of new vulnerabilities could fluctuate, impacting the planned capacity. Unexpected spikes in new vulnerabilities would require an adaptable strategy.
- Coordination with CNAs: Effective collaboration with CVE Numbering Authorities (CNAs) to ensure timely and comprehensive data submission is essential.
Implications of the the NVD Vulnerability Backlog Vulnerability Management
The NVD Vulnerability Backlog in vulnerability analysis poses significant risks. When vulnerabilities are not analyzed and enriched with critical metadata, scanning organizations face challenges in prioritizing and mitigating threats. This can lead to increased exposure to cyber attacks, especially from nation-state actors and ransomware gangs who exploit these vulnerabilities.
The Importance of Timely Vulnerability Management:
- Prioritization: Enriched CVE data helps organizations prioritize remediation efforts based on the severity and potential impact of vulnerabilities.
- Trend Analysis: Understanding vulnerability trends can drive vendors to address broader classes of vulnerabilities.
- Proactive Defense: Early warnings and detailed information about actively exploited vulnerabilities allow organizations to take proactive measures to secure their systems.
Challenges and Solutions
While the Vulnrichment program is a step in the right direction, some challenges need to be addressed to ensure its success:
- Resource Allocation: Ensuring that CISA and other involved agencies have adequate resources and personnel to manage the enrichment process.
- Collaboration: Enhanced collaboration between CNAs, CISA, and other stakeholders to ensure comprehensive and timely submission of vulnerability data.
- Technological Integration: Developing systems and tools that can seamlessly integrate enriched CVE data into existing vulnerability management processes.
Future Prospects
Despite the challenges, there are reasons for optimism. New initiatives such as the release of the new CVE format (version 5.1), efforts by CNAs to submit complete information, and the Vulnrichment program are promising steps towards improving vulnerability management.
Conclusion
The NVD, CISA, and the Vulnrichment program are critical components of the United States’ cybersecurity infrastructure. The recent backlog in vulnerability analysis highlights the urgent need for enhanced data enrichment processes and collaboration among all stakeholders. By addressing these challenges, the Vulnrichment program aims to provide organizations with the timely and accurate information they need to secure their systems against evolving cyber threats.
With no mandate but a hopeful target of March 2025 for resolving the current backlog, the cybersecurity community must remain vigilant and proactive in implementing effective vulnerability management strategies. This will not only improve organisational security but also contribute to the overall resilience of the nation’s critical infrastructure.
How can Phoenix Security help in addressing the NVD Vulnerability Backlog
In response to the challenges faced by the NVD, Phoenix Security offers robust Vulnerability management, ASPM and Vulnerability threat Intelligence solution that automates the enrichment process by synchronizing with NVD, CVE.org, augmenting and extracting meaning for technical analysis and syncing with the Vulnrichment initiative. Phoenix Security connects to over 32 vulnerability intelligence sources and ensures comprehensive and timely enrichment of CVE data. Additionally, their innovative 4D contextual risk-based formula provides enhanced training and prioritization, enabling organizations to effectively manage and mitigate vulnerabilities. This advanced approach not only streamlines the enrichment process but also empowers security teams with the tools and insights needed to stay ahead of evolving threats.
